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Forecasting Bumpy Skies

In addition to its role as the number one cause of air carrier accidents, turbulence is the second leading cause of capacity problems in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS).

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) says that turbulence was a factor in more than a third of the 295 accidents1 involving U.S. Federal Aviation Regulations Part 121 air carrier accidents from 2009 through 2018.2 Most of those accidents resulted in serious injuries to at least one passenger or crewmember but no damage to the aircraft.

As for capacity issues, turbulence is second only to summertime convective storms as a cause of crowding in the NAS. Tammy Flowe, research meteorologist and acting manager of the Weather Research Branch of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Weather Division, describes the domino effect that follows a turbulence-prompted change of altitude by one aircraft.

“If one plane changes altitude to avoid t…

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