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Forecast: A Bumpier Ride

Clear air turbulence (CAT) has increased significantly in recent decades at key locations around the globe, and climate change is expected to intensify that trend, according to a study by U.K. meteorological researchers.

The researchers — from the University of Reading and the U.K.  Meteorological Office — analyzed CAT trends from 1979 through 2020 and found “clear evidence of large increases around the midlatitudes at aircraft cruising altitudes,” according to their report, published in the June 16 issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

Of the five categories of CAT, ranging from “light or greater” to “severe or greater,” the greatest increase was recorded in the “severe or greater” category, in which turbulence was 55 percent more frequent in 2020 than it had been in 1979, the report said. The 55 percent increase meant severe turbulence per year increased from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020. In the same time frame, moderate tur…

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