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False Expectations

A diagram of the runway incident. VH-ITF is the Navajo; VH-ZRH is the Saab.

The crew of a Saab 340B provided what the Australian Transport Safety Board (ATSB) called a prime example of expectation bias when they taxied onto a Carnarvon runway after another aircraft had begun its takeoff roll.

None of the 36 passengers and crewmembers on the two airplanes was injured, and neither airplane was damaged in the Aug. 31, 2020, incident, which the ATSB said “illustrates the effects expectations can have on how pilots perceive information.”

In its final report, the ATSB said that the crews of the Regional Express Saab and a Shine Aviation Piper PA-31 Navajo were preparing their aircraft for passenger transport flights at about the same time at Carnarvon Airport in Western Australia.

At 1659 local time, the pilot of the Navajo told Melbourne Center air traffic control (ATC) that the airplane was taxiing for takeoff on Runway 22. The airplane, with the pilot and two pass…

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