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Aviation accident fatality data for 2008–2012 tell an encouraging and improving story for countries advancing the furthest on the development continuum. At the same time, however, improvement is not being seen among the least developed states, which are falling behind the rest of the world when accident fatality data is examined.

To understand the changes, let us review some background.

Four National Categories

In a study published in 2010 concerning data from 2000–20071 on the death risk for passengers on scheduled commercial flights, I divided the world’s nations into four categories:

  • The traditional “First World,” which included the British Commonwealth members Australia, Canada and New Zealand; Israel; Japan; the United States; and Western Europe.2
  • The “Nouveau Riche” countries that had achieved First World standards of life expectancy and/or gross domestic product per capita by the early 21st century. These…
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